Let’s talk manufacturing employment. If you are anywhere between the ages of 45 and 55, you are likely to have been affected to some degree by one or more of the economic ups and downs shown in the graph.
We’ve done a lot of manufacturing recruiting during a big part of this era, we’ve seen this first-hand. We’ll discuss that more in just a second. First, let’s look at the chart above from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On the left, that’s the manufacturing jobs in the millions – it goes from 10 million to 16 million. On the bottom, you have your years, which go from 2002 to 2022.
Every now and then, it’s a good idea to look back as a way of putting today’s economy in perspective.
Here are the most notable economic events of the last 25 years with a summary of how they came to
be.
Driven by the low cost of borrowing, people went on a buying spree of housing. Due to the high demand, banks were writing a lot of loans built around very risky terms, creating a bubble. When the bubble burst, there was no underlying substance to the mortgages, and many defaulted. This resulted in a
collapse of the financial sector, which led to the Great Recession that lingered for the next
A 10-year period during which manufacturing employment lost 6 million jobs.
After the recession of 2000 – 2010, there was a weak rebound in manufacturing employment, which gained some traction, generating around 800K jobs during that five-year period. A mix of events drove the 2015 slowdown: China had overbuilt for fast growth that never happened, the price of oil crashed from $95 to
$50 a barrel, and a strong dollar made US-manufactured goods expensive. Although the broader
economy kept growing, the manufacturing and energy sectors were still weak. The broader economy
kept growing, but at a slower pace, and fears of a recession briefly spiked.
The 2020 slowdown, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, was the biggest outbreak of its kind since the
end of WWI. The uncertainty around the event resulted in a cascade of effects including shutdowns,
collapsing consumer demand, prolonged, disrupted supply chains, and financial market stress.
Nonetheless, during the five years from 2020 to today about $500K jobs have been added to the
workforce.
So, what is there to say about this information? There seem to be a couple observations. Even including
the pandemic, the manufacturing sector over the last 10 years has continued to “churn” within the
range of about 12.5M +/- $500K jobs. And the general trend is upward over the last 15 years.
This gets more interesting if we break down this skilled and educated workforce, relative to their
experiences as shown in the table, below.
| Cohort | Years Born | % of Manufacturing Workforce |
|---|---|---|
| Baby Boomers & Silent Generation | 1928–1964 | 25.5% |
| Generation X | 1965–1980 | 23.3% |
| Millennials (Gen Y) | 1981–1996 | 43.6% |
| Generation Z | 1997+ | 7.6% |
Millennials are the largest cohort in the sector, making up nearly half of manufacturing workers (43.6%).
As Millennials and Gen Z mature, those two cohorts in combination will gain influence as they become
the majority in the workforce.
Workers 55+ (born in 1970 or earlier) represent about 24% of manufacturing roles. This creates a
looming retirement wave. The net effect is an increasing demand and ramping up of the need for talent in the manufacturing sector. It creates the expectation that this should generate employment opportunities for Gen Y & Z.
Of course, this is not an economic certainty. Extreme events, as we’ve seen, can have a dramatic effect.
When they happen, you’re going to see manufacturing employment swing one way or another. The housing bubble and the COVID-19 pandemic are the most notable such examples.
At the same time, we are just at the beginning of AI, self-driving cars, cryptocurrencies, bipedal humanoid robots, satellite internet 24/7, possibly a hydrogen economy and so on. Any one of these could be a great advancement or a technical equivalent of a financial bubble poised to decimate our economy.
Addressing the existing tech opportunities in the pipeline will take millions of tech workers to advance technology and make the discoveries that will move our society forward, regardless of any other factors. People still need to design, manufacture, and integrate this future world, whatever it turns out to be.
Integress is your trusted executive search firm specializing in identifying talent in the manufacturing, industrial automation, logistics/materials handling, and Information Technology recruitment.
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